FIELD-TESTED TOOLKITS FOR HVAC OWNERS

Which Channel Is Just Burning Cash?

10 min read

The $8,400 Line Item

It is Sunday night at the kitchen table. The house is quiet in that end-of-week way that makes numbers feel louder. You have a stack of checks and a laptop open to your accounting software.

Parts vendors.
Fuel cards.
Payroll processing.
Insurance.

Then you hit the one that makes you pause.

Digital Marketing Partners LLC: 8,400

You open the job board from last month on your phone.

Three solid retrofit jobs.
A bunch of service calls.
Not nearly enough work to feel good about that number.

You text your partner:

“Do we actually know what this is buying us?”

They reply:

“Agency said last month was great. More clicks. More impressions.”

You stare at the line item again. Part of you wants to trust it. Part of you wants to cut it. The smarter part knows neither move is the point. It is time to find out for yourself.

This post is how you do that without becoming a marketing hobbyist. You are not here to learn new jargon. You are here to decide what deserves your next dollar.

If you need the baseline first, start with Is My Marketing Actually Working? to define “working” across fit, conversion, and profit before you touch budgets.

1. What an Ad Spend Audit Really Is

Reality

An ad spend audit is not another vendor report. It is you walking the money from your bank account to a specific paid channel, to specific booked jobs, to the gross margin that actually stuck.

Most owners skip this because the spreadsheets look annoying. Most vendors avoid this because the truth is uncomfortable.

Fix It

Use one simple rule. If a channel cannot be tied to:

  • Booked strong-fit jobs
  • At gross margins you recognize as healthy for your crew reality
  • At a cost you would agree to pay again

It does not get to call itself a growth engine. It is just a line item with good vibes.

Pro Move

Make the audit an autopsy, not a trial. You are not trying to punish whoever approved last year’s spend. You are trying to find the leak so you can stop paying for it.

Treat paid marketing like a truck that has been “running rough.” You do not yell at the engine. You open the hood.

Quick Win

Write this sentence at the top of your next marketing meeting agenda.

“Show me which specific jobs this channel helped us book and the gross margin from those jobs.”

If the room goes quiet, you already learned something.

2. Put Every Paid Dollar in One Place

Reality

Most shops do not know their true paid spend. They know Google Ads. They forget the lead platforms. They ignore the agency retainers. They definitely forget the “small” experiments that became permanent.

The channel you trust most is often the one you audit least. Google gets scrutinized because the invoice is obvious. The retainer gets a pass because it sounds like partnership. Know this: Partnership without accountability is just rent.

Fix It

Pull three to six months of all paid demand costs in one list:

  • Paid search
  • Paid social
  • Lead marketplaces
  • Retargeting spend
  • Agency fees tied to paid channel management
  • Creative costs you pay specifically to feed paid campaigns

Do not optimize yet. Just get the full picture.

For a big picture view on why spend keeps shifting and why attribution gets messy, the Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers Internet Ad Revenue Report is a credible outside anchor.

Pro Move

Group spend by intent level, not by vendor.

  • High intent capture: search, direct response placements, local commercial intent terms
  • Mid intent conversion: retargeting, remarketing, nurture ads
  • Low intent awareness: broad audience social, display

If low intent spend is more than you would tolerate in a slow month, you will feel it in your cash before you see it in your dashboards.

Quick Win

Open your last three months of bank statements. Search these words:

“ads”

“marketing”

“lead”

“agency”

Make a list of every charge you forgot existed. That list is usually where the easiest cuts live.

3. Audit the Channel with the Only Math that Matters

Reality

Vendors love cost per lead. Your business runs on cost per booked strong-fit job. A cheap bad lead is still expensive.

Fix It

For each paid channel, write five numbers.

  1. Total spend
  2. Total leads
  3. Strong-fit leads
  4. Booked strong-fit jobs
  5. Gross margin from those booked strong-fit jobs

Then calculate three ratios.

  • Cost per strong-fit lead
  • Cost per booked strong-fit job
  • Cost per gross margin dollar

Example snapshot:

Google Ads (Search)

  1. Total spend: $3,200
  2. Total leads: 47
  3. Strong-fit leads: 12
  4. Booked strong-fit jobs: 3
  5. Gross margin from those jobs: $8,900

Ratios:

  • Cost per strong-fit lead: $267
  • Cost per booked strong-fit job: $1,067
  • Cost per gross margin dollar: $0.36

Lead Platform (Marketplace)

  1. Total spend: $1,850
  2. Total leads: 68
  3. Strong-fit leads: 4
  4. Booked strong-fit jobs: 1
  5. Gross margin from that job: $2,400

Ratios:

  • Cost per strong-fit lead: $463
  • Cost per booked strong-fit job: $1,850
  • Cost per gross margin dollar: $0.77

Now you can see it. Google looks expensive per lead but survivable per booked margin dollar. The platform looks “cheap” until you trace it to booked work. This is the point of the audit.

Pro Move

Set your own thresholds based on what you can actually afford.

Here is one working example from a $12M commercial shop:

  • Green (Scale it): Under $0.25 per gross margin dollar plus jobs match our target profile
  • Yellow (Fix it): $0.25–$0.50 per gross margin dollar plus a clear improvement path
  • Red (Cut or pause): Over $0.50 or consistently wrong job types

Your numbers will differ based on overhead and crew capacity. The point is not to copy these thresholds. The point is to set yours before emotion takes over.

Ask yourself.

“What would I pay for one dollar of gross margin on work I actually want?”

Then make that your green line.

Worked math example:

  • Channel spend: $3,000
  • Booked strong-fit gross margin: $10,000
  • Cost per gross margin dollar: $0.30

Result. Yellow in this example.

Fix before you scale.

Decide what to scale, what to fix, and what to cut using cost gross margin dollar.

Quick Win

Pick your top three paid channels. Run this math for the last 90 days. Do not chase perfection. A directional answer is enough to decide what deserves attention next month.

To benchmark the local media mix reality, BIA’s local ad spend forecast analysis is a strong reference point for where dollars are moving.

4. Decide Whether a Channel should be Kept, Fixed, or Cut

Reality

Most owners only cut spend when they feel scared. That is too late.

Most shops cut the wrong channels when they panic. They slash the expensive, slow-converting channel that books retrofits. They keep the cheap, fast-converting channel that books low-value service calls.

Six months later they wonder why they are busy but not profitable.

This is also why modern measurement is moving toward “multiple methods, one truth.” Google’s overview of rethinking Return on Investment with AI-powered measurement is a clean explanation of why single-source attribution breaks in real buyer journeys.

Fix It

Make one of three calls per channel.

I. Keep and consider scaling:

  • Strong-fit jobs
  • Healthy cost per booked job
  • Clean path to expand without degrading quality

II. Fix

  • The job type is right
  • The gross margin is promising
  • Conversion or targeting is sloppy

III. Cut or shrink

  • Wrong work
  • No clear improvement path
  • The channel survives on report theatrics instead of booked margin

Pro Move

Separate channel problems from shop problems.

Sometimes a channel looks red because your intake is leaking. If your response time and call handling are loose, you will misdiagnose paid spend as the villain. You are isolating the paid engine first, then checking whether your front door is killing good demand.

Quick Win

For any “Fix” channel, write one sentence that defines the fix. Then add one test you can launch this week.

Example Fix Sentence:

“We will tighten Google Ads to buildings over 50,000 square feet in our core counties.”

This Week’s Test:

  • Add negative keywords: residential, homeowner, apartment
  • Adjust location targeting to exclude outer zip codes
  • Pause any ad group with “emergency repair” in the copy
  • Review search terms tomorrow morning to see what is still bleeding through

If you cannot write both the sentence and the test, you do not know what to fix yet.

5. A Paid-media Operating Cadence that Keeps You in Control

Reality

Paid marketing fails quietly. It does not explode. It drifts. The creative gets stale. The targeting gets lazy. The agency rotates a junior person onto your account. You keep paying.

Your agency wants monthly reviews. You need weekly kill rules. The difference is who controls the timeline of truth.

Fix It

Adopt a simple monthly cadence.

  • Week 1: Review the three ratios by channel.
  • Week 2: Check search terms, audience filters, and lead quality notes from intake.
  • Week 3: Decide one test per “Fix” channel.
  • Week 4: Reallocate next month’s dollars based on what the numbers actually say.

No heroics. Just discipline.

Pro Move

Make Week 1 real, not theoretical. Pull your dashboard or have your agency send you:

  • Total spend by channel
  • Strong-fit leads by channel (you define fit, not them)
  • Booked strong-fit jobs by channel

Then ask:

  • Which channel moved this month and why?
  • Which channel is steady? Is steady good or stuck?
  • Which channel drifted? When did we stop watching it?

Document one insight per channel, even if it is blunt.

“Search is still earning its spot.”
“Marketplace is dying quietly.”
“Retargeting is running because no one owns it.”

Pro Move

Build kill rules before you launch a new test.

Examples:

  • “If we cannot book two strong-fit jobs within 60 days at our target cost per booked job, we pause.”
  • “If lead quality drops two months in a row, we cut budget by 25 percent and tighten filters.”
  • “If retargeting cannot drive booked quotes for A-profile facilities, it becomes a minor support line item, not a growth driver.”

One shop’s real kill rule:

“We ran Facebook ads for six months targeting ‘commercial building owners.’ Cost per lead looked great at $42. But when we tracked it honestly, only 2 of 63 leads were strong-fit. Both ghosted after the first call.

Our kill rule became: ‘If a channel cannot produce 1 booked strong-fit job per $2,000 spent in 90 days, we reallocate that budget to search.’

We cut Facebook. Put the money into Google. Booked three retrofits in the next 60 days.”

Kill rules do not make you cynical. They make you free.

Quick Win

Pick one paid channel you suspect is coasting.

Cut its budget by 20 percent for the next 30 days. If your booked strong-fit jobs do not move, you just found your easiest reallocation opportunity.

Final Takeaway: Don't Donate Ad Budget

This is not a job mix strategy post. This is about paid dollars and the discipline to protect them.

If a channel cannot show you booked strong-fit gross margin at a cost you would proudly pay again, you are not investing. You are donating.

The goal is not to become more aggressive with ads. The goal is to become harder to fool.

Cut With a Reason. Not a Feeling.

This audit showed which channels survive contact with booked margin. The next move is not a new platform. It is a clean decision.

If your situation looks like this, spend is up but margin is not, ground the system first with Is My Marketing Actually Working?. Make sure you are measuring the whole demand engine, not just the loudest channel.

Then choose the right fix:

Am I Targeting the Wrong Job Types? if the jobs booking are profitable but wrong.

Why Aren’t Calls Turning Into Jobs? if intake is killing good leads.

Why Are Our Leads Weak: My Strategy Or Our Lead System if the problem is strategy and follow-through, not one channel.

Use this Lead Quality Check to track cost per booked strong-fit job by channel over time. When you want this to turn into a reallocation plan that sticks, request your Customer Leads Workplan.

Tim
Trade-Smart Brand Builder
TradeSworn Operator
Win Smarter. Grow Faster. Lead Like a Pro.

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